Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 56716.494155 60073.125853 63436.035910 67055.340713 70837.769577 74671.303910 78847.647005
2024-10-27 50916.481434 56007.356752 61258.424593 67070.848492 73315.733736 79814.964026 87081.535604
2024-11-03 47593.724405 53919.160166 60592.478486 68139.687529 76419.840991 85209.445882 95226.920687
2024-11-10 44906.237497 52152.807792 59943.608477 68912.965093 78923.731451 89722.730585 102221.801737
2024-11-17 42480.680172 50432.941242 59125.966853 69291.129324 80806.695703 93402.111431 108173.977148
2024-11-24 40190.154867 48685.724030 58114.918205 69297.627580 82136.685069 96354.408176 113225.304022
2024-12-01 38384.962580 47366.892978 57475.262382 69617.890478 83728.257475 99527.766334 118472.120050
2024-12-08 36626.950996 45996.627925 56680.492295 69669.470559 84934.089300 102202.380698 123107.973631
2024-12-15 35584.649007 45403.455973 56732.818523 70655.928272 87183.568014 106052.001793 129089.937038
2024-12-22 34016.503340 44102.360793 55878.930306 70508.191084 88048.094837 108253.363179 133130.781207
2024-12-29 33252.616737 43732.561632 56099.455063 71609.202650 90368.977736 112151.050434 139166.735889
2025-01-05 32319.949040 43108.735714 55973.110576 72257.831078 92124.198514 115368.573297 144402.186583
2025-01-12 31119.868663 42121.998736 55383.288391 72333.072077 93193.720521 117793.974534 148743.616616
2025-01-19 29855.602531 41008.595986 54597.351697 72132.596116 93902.334145 119773.782423 152553.582311
2025-01-26 29292.809411 40760.677432 54866.238758 73221.568029 96183.027304 123654.596372 158675.523600
2025-02-02 28639.384631 40366.771025 54927.382765 74031.738754 98108.581994 127104.129406 164288.756503
2025-02-09 27840.212338 39751.573122 54680.530689 74430.409118 99505.916066 129901.396485 169111.933270
2025-02-16 26913.742838 38935.383416 54146.423813 74436.938474 100390.624441 132055.529174 173143.897372
2025-02-23 26181.933326 38351.062691 53888.005769 74775.961502 101680.732959 134706.283930 177795.612433
2025-03-02 25369.279056 37630.132812 53426.631583 74830.558596 102592.402412 136876.830182 181852.370485
2025-03-09 25005.197740 37502.553417 53732.430267 75874.892981 104769.467786 140641.012349 187920.881614
2025-03-16 24177.119291 36712.782262 53137.902829 75718.497510 105383.909254 142427.438918 191506.596501
2025-03-23 23907.306299 36683.480808 53549.181891 76883.941684 107712.632940 146395.392951 197867.731509